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#7 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-4) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (21-6) Preview and Prediction

February 25, 2012 by agent

North Carolina travels to Charlottesville to battle Virginia in a key ACC showdown. America's Bookie has North Carolina as a 4-point favorite and the total for this game is set at 137½.

North Carolina enters this game tied atop the ACC standings with Duke at 11-2. The Tar Heels have won their last four games overall and five straight on the road, including last Tuesday's 86-74 win against North Carolina State.  

Virginia is one of the real surprise teams this season, they're 8-5 in ACC play and they have won their last two games, including a narrow 61-59 victory at rival Virginia Tech last Tuesday. The Cavaliers have won 21 games, the most for the school since 1994-95.

The Tar Heels have won eight of their last nine meetings against the Cavs to increase their advantage in the all-time series to 126-49. North Carolina is seeking the regular season sweep after blowing out the Cavaliers 70-52 in Chapel Hill on February 11.

North Carolina's greatest strength is their frontcourt, the team ranks second in the country in scoring (82.9 points per game) while leading the nation in rebounding (45.8 rebounds per game) and rebounding margin (+11.2).

Harrison Barnes leads North Carolina and ranks second in the ACC in scoring at 18.0 points per game. Tyler Zeller (15.6 points and 9.4 rebounds) and John Henson (14.0 points and 10.4 rebounds) make up an unstoppable duo in the low post. Point guard Kendall Marshall has done an outstanding job distributing the ball, he ranks second in the nation with 9.8 assists per game. Marshall had a career-high 22 points along with 13 assists with no turnovers in 38 minutes of work against North Carolina State. Harrison Barnes added 20 points in the win.

Virginia lacks the offensive firepower to win a shootout with North Carolina, they average a modest 63.1 points per game this season, but they enjoy an impressive +11.0 scoring margin thanks to their outstanding defensive play. The Cavaliers rank second in the nation in scoring defense (52.1 points per game), while holding their opponents to 38.9 percent shooting. This team lacks scoring depth but they have one of the ACC's top frontcourt players in Mike Scott, who leads Virginia in both scoring (17.3 points per game) and rebounding (8.2 rebounds per game). Joe Harris is Virginia's only other double-digit threat with 11.4 points per game.

Scott finished just shy of a double-double with game-highs of 20 points and nine rebounds in last Tuesday's 61-59 win over Virginia Tech. Virginia shot 59.5 percent from the floor (25-42), including 6-15 from beyond the arc.

North Carolina is 10-4 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record while Virginia is 11-7 ATS after allowing 60 points or less.
 
Virginia is tough to play with because of their defensive style but North Carolina has the weapons to counter. This game will have a similar outcome than the first meeting of the season, it will be a low-scoring contest but North Carolina will prevail. The under is the best play here, six of the last eight games between these two teams have gone under the total.

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Game information
Date: 4:00 PM ET, February 25
Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
Coverage: ESPN / ESPN 3

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