NFL Week 4 Odds and Preview

Here is this week’s lineup with the most current odds from America’s Bookie and a short preview of the games.  Last week was pretty crazy and I have to think it can only get better.  Who would have thought that the New Orleans Saints would be 0-3 or that Green Bay and New England would be 1-2.  When you have a bad week like we did last week you just have to take the lessons out of the mistakes, apply them and move on.  I’m banking on the fact that we won’t have 2 crazy weeks in a row.  Good luck with your bets this week.  

Thursday September 20, 2012

Cleveland Browns (0-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-1) 8:20 PM ET

Baltimore is favored by 13 and the total is set at 43 ½.  The Ravens won a big AFC battle against the Patriots last week on a last second field goal.  The Browns have now lost 9 straight regular season games.  I still think Brandon Weeden and Trent Richardson will start clicking soon and they will win some games.  This is not a good defense for them to improve against though probably.  However, I could see Baltimore having a bit of a letdown after the big win last week.  The Ravens will win this one but take the Browns +13.

Sunday September 30, 2012

Carolina Panthers (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (3-0) 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta is favored by 7 and the total is set at 48 ½.  I didn’t expect the Falcons to dominate San Diego like they did last week.  Matt Ryan looked very sharp in the win passing for 275 yards and 3 TD’s.  I expected Carolina to at least show up against the Giants even if they didn’t win.  They looked very flat against New York and Cam Newton was pretty much stifled.  This one is a bit puzzling.  I like Atlanta but I’m not 100% sold yet.  I’m going for 2 road dogs in a road and advising the Panthers +7.

New England Patriots (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1) 1:00 PM ET

New England is favored by 4 and the total is set at 52.  The Patriots are looking like they have some real problems.  They aren’t running the ball well and the defense isn’t looking as improved as we thought after the first game.  Buffalo is hard to figure out.  Fitzpatrick had 3 touchdown passes last week and this team could be pretty good if he plays consistent.  The thing that scares me in this game is that the Pats are liable to be angry and have a breakout game this week.  But I’m learning my lesson about breaking the rules so I’m taking Buffalo +4 at home.

Minnesota Vikings (2-1) @ Detroit Lions (1-2) 1:00 PM ET

As of this writing there is still no line on this game.  This has got to be because of the uncertainty of Matthew Stafford playing on Sunday.  The Vikings are playing very well right now, coming off a big win over San Francisco in a game in which they dominated.  Christian Ponder is playing surprisingly well and is second in the league among QB’s with a 70.1 completion percentage and #5 among QB’s for passer rating at 104.9.  So far the knee is holding up for Adrian Peterson as he has 230 yards rushing.  Detroit lost a tough one last week against Tennessee and it doesn’t bode well without Stafford in the game.  Having said that be careful when the line comes out.  All indications point towards the Vikings, especially if Stafford does not play.  Those can be dangerous spots.  Depending on the numbers I might just make a play on the Lions.

Tennessee Titans (1-2) @ Houston Texans (3-0) 1:00 PM ET

Houston is favored by 12 ½ and the total is set at 45.  The oddsmakers really love the home teams so far.  The Titans got their first win of the season in a 44-41 shootout win over Detroit last week and Houston came up with a big AFC win against the Broncos.  The game went up and down for Tennessee but they definitely had some long scoring plays in the game.  Matt Schaub looked very good for Houston in the win over Denver passing for 290 yards and 4 TD’s.  These 2 teams should score so we are going with the over in this contest.

San Diego Chargers (2-1) @ Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City is favored by 1 and the total is set at 44 ½.  Kansas City shocked me, and I think everyone else, with their win over the Saints.  Jamaal Charles was the star of the day rushing for 233 yards.  The Chargers looked pretty pathetic in their loss to the Falcons.  Philip Rivers stunk up the field with a QB rating of 45.  This is the problem with the Chargers.  You just can’t count on him to be consistent.  That being said I think the KC win was a fluke.  Take the Chargers to win on the road and if not they will have another mediocre season and fire Norv Turner.

San Francisco 49ers (2-1) @ New York Jets (2-1) 1:00 PM ET

San Francisco is favored by 4 and the total is set at 40.  Who would have thought the Niners would look so bad after the way they played in the first 2 games.  They weren’t just beaten they were dominated by the Vikings.  The Jets pulled out the win against the Dolphins after trailing for most of the game.  I like the Niners to bounce back but am respecting the home team.  Take the home dog in this one. 

Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ St. Louis Rams (1-2) 1:00 PM ET

Seattle is favored by 3 and the total is set at 38 ½.  Seattle got the controversial win over the Packers on Monday Night Football and their defense looked pretty good in the game.  They didn’t have a lot of success on offense but a win is a win.  The Rams were only able to muster 160 yards of offense against the Bears.  Sam Bradford got sacked 6 times and this team is not working out like we thought.  Even though this is a low total I’m going for the under in this game. 

Miami Dolphins (1-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (3-0) 4:05 PM ET

Arizona is favored by 6 and the total is set at 39.  Arizona has surprised most with the 3-0 start.  QB Kevin Kolb looked sharp against his former team last week as the Cards pounded the Eagles 27-6.  Kolb finished with going 17 of 24 for 224 yards and 2 TD’s.  The Dolphins lost to the Jets in a heartbreaker and Reggie Bush left the game with a knee injury.  Most reports are saying he won’t play but the Miami news channels say he might.  Either way Arizona is due for a letdown.  Take the Fins and 6 on the road.

Oakland Raiders (1-2) @ Denver Broncos (1-2) 4:05 PM ET

Denver is favored by 6 ½ and the total is set at 48.  Even though a few people I respect say they saw it coming I never figured the Raiders would beat the stealers.  The Raiders could be a decent team if Carson Palmer could play consistently and Darren McFadden plays like he did last week.  After a bad performance against the Dolphins, McFadden rushed for 113 yards against the Steelers.  Despite a good first game we knew Peyton Manning had to have a little rust on him.  He has to stop spotting teams the lead and needing to come back.  I see a reversal of fortunes this week.  Take the home team and lay the points.

Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) 4:05 PM ET

Cincinnati is favored by 3 and the total is set at 43.  Good quality win by the Bengals over Washington last week and Andy Dalton looked good passing for 328 yards and 3 TD’s.  Jacksonville got a gritty win over the Colts but it wasn’t very impressive.  I don’t see 2 wins in a row for the Jaguars.  Take Cincinnati and lay the points here.

New Orleans Saints (0-3) @ Green Bay Packers (1-2) 4:25 PM ET

Green Bay is favored by 8 and the total is set at 54.  This will be an interesting game and despite New Orleans’ 0-3 start I’m a little surprised to see how high the line is.  This is a must win game for the Saints.  They are pretty much finished for the season with a loss here.  They let the game against Kansas City slip away last week blowing an 18 point 3^rd quarter lead.  The Packers are coming off a controversial loss on Monday Night Football and are not looking so good themselves this season.  The Saints will leave it all on the field.  They may not win but they will cover.

Washington Redskins (1-2) @ Tampa Bay Bucs (1-2) 4:25 PM ET

Tampa Bay is favored by 3 and the total is set at 47 ½.  Josh Freeman and Tampa Bay looked horrible against the Cowboys last Sunday.  Washington lost a tough shootout against the Bengals.  Everything points to the Redskins winning this one.  That is why I’m taking Tampa Bay -3.  They will surprise everyone this week and have a solid performance at home.

New York Giants (2-1) @ Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) 8:20 PM ET

Philadelphia is favored by 2 and the total is set at 46.  These teams went in 2 totally different directions last week.  The Giants looked like the world champions they are and the Eagles look horrible.  Let’s see if RB Andre Brown can repeat his performance against the Panthers.  We know that Eli can get the job done.  Michael Vick was not productive at all in the loss to Arizona.  Everything points to the Giants, right?  If last week taught us anything it was not to put too much emphasis on what should be from the week before.  Eagles will rebound and win at home against New York.

Monday October 1, 2012

Chicago Bears (2-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1) 8:30 PM ET

Dallas is favored by 4 and the total is set at 41 ½.  Chicago’s defense should be largely credited for their win against Philadelphia.  Dallas didn’t look good at all in their win over Tampa Bay but winning those bad games is much better than losing them.  Tony Romo didn’t play very well either but what’s new?  That could bode well for the Cowboys as he is liable to have an up week after the poor performance.  Chicago might have Matt Forte back in the lineup which should definitely help their chances.  I don’t like their chances very much if it depends on Jay Cutler.  In the young season he has one of the worst passer ratings in the league and leads all quarterbacks with 6 interceptions.  I’m going with the under here.  I believe Chicago’s D can at least keep the score down and I don’t look for big scoring out of Chicago.

Keep up with the action at NFL Scores and Odds.