NFL Preview and 5 star Picks

Last week was the first week that the favorites started to cover a lot. This is the time of the year where teams seem to give up and the better teams win easily. This might last another 2-3 weeks until the dogs start playing spoiler and playing for their jobs. This is not going to stop us from what has made us money for years. Being a contrarian.

5 star Picks-*****

Cowboys +4 over Falcons. This game is on Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys have been embarrassed enough already this year, and the Falcons will come back to earth one of these weeks. We expected the Falcons to lose last week, but they were well prepared and the Eagles are just a bad team. The Cowboys are better than the Eagles, they want to salvage their season and this is the week that Atlanta finally gets a little too cocky. This game will be back and forth and whoever wants it more will win. That team is Dallas. Take the 4 points.

4 star Picks-****

Vikings +4.5 over Seahawks. This line is really odd. The line opened too low and is going down. Normally that means that the stupid money is driving the line down. It this case it won’t really matter. The Vikings can score and have had 1.5 weeks to prepare for this game. Seattle needs a win badly but when they win it’s always close. They may very well win this game, but we feel comfortable taking Minnesota and 4.5 in this spot

Steelers+3.5 over Giants. Pittsburgh is a very good team. Tom Coughlin said they are outstanding. No matter what the coach says the Giants will be flat this week. They are coming off the big win in Dallas, they have been distracted by the hurricane and they seem to relax too much at home. Pittsburgh on the other hand will fly in the day of the game because their hotel is washed out. They will show up, eat and just play freely and well. If the Giants want to win this game it will be up to Eli to save them with a late drive. Take the points.

3 star Picks-***

Bengals +3.5 over Broncos. Denver has been “clicking on all cylinders” while Cincy has not. If you bet this game in week one Cincy would be favored by 3. These are still the same teams that started the year, except for the fact that Peyton has progressed and Dalton has regressed. The Bengals still have the talent to make a playoff push. Playoff teams win games like this. We are taking the home team and the generous spot.

Titans +3.5 over Bears. The Bears got really lucky last week and are not nearly as good as their record. They have to start losing soon and this week is as good of a time as any. They shouldn’t be laying “MORE “then a FG here. Maybe if it was 3 we might rate this game lower, but with the line being 3.5 and the Titans being at home, they should cover. Remember this team beat the Steelers at home a few weeks ago.

Saints-3.5 over Eagles. In a spot like this we usually take the points on MNF, but not here. The Eagles are in disarray but the Saints aren’t much better. The difference is they are home, they have a better QB and they care more about winning. This game may be close early, then either Vick will make a mistake or Brees will just be hitting guys on fly patterns everywhere. This is a bad spot for Philly.

Jaguars +4 over Lions. We just don’t like the way this line looks. The Lions are a much better team than the Jags. They need this game more; they have a much better QB and a better defense. Therefore “if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck,” bet the other side. This is the NFL and nothing is that easy. Plus the Jags played pretty well last week in Green Bay. Bet the Jaguars here

2 star picks-**

Cardinals +10.5 over Packers. The Cardinals really let us down last week.  What a pathetic showing on MNF vs. the 49ers. The Packers looked lethargic as well in not covering vs. the Jaguars. This will be a similar week. Green Bay doesn’t bring it’s “A” game and Cards play very tough. We are taking the large spread here.

Bills +10.5 over Texans. Lots of the same things apply in this game. The Texans will take Buffalo lightly, and the Bills are going to come to play. Houston was off last week and may be a little rusty. Buffalo was off last week as well. There is a huge difference however, Teams that are winning, party and feel too good about themselves with a week off.  Losing teams are being whipped by the coaches and have to listen to all the negative talk on the radio. Bet the Bills here.

Colts+2.5 over Dolphins. We are not picking a side here but picking a total instead. The Dolphins have very good defense and their offense is just learning how to play. Tannenhill is also banged up. The Colts too are a young team that is just getting its feet wet. This game won’t be pretty to watch. One team will win but we are not sure who. It will go under 43 however.

1 star picks-*

Browns +3.5 over Ravens. We wish we could give you some good reasons why the Browns will cover but we can’t, only to say that it’s just gets us “queasy in our stomachs” to lay more than a field goal here. The Ravens make mistakes and  laying 3.5 is crazy. We are betting Cleveland here but not too much.

Panthers +2.5 over Redskins. Carolina needs to play at least one solid game this year and this may be the week. The Redskins are used to sloppy high scoring games and Caronia likes those as well. Take the points and the Panthers here.

Bucs+1 over Raiders. Both teams have been playing better as of late. We just feel that the Raiders will take Tampa lightly and that will be a mistake. Bet Tampa Bay here.

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