NFC Conference Championship

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NFC Conference Championship

Minnesota at New Orleans (-3.5, total 53)

This is the first-ever NFC Championship game to be played in the city of New Orleans. The Saints have never hosted one. Invading is Brett Favre, a QB who won his only Super Bowl in this venue 13 years ago.

There's not a lot separating these two teams. Both signal-caller have had very solid seasons and have been great leaders for their teams. Both teams have outstanding sets of receivers that have grown and matured as the season progressed. Both teams have speedy game-breakers (Reggie Bush for the Saints; Percy Harvin for the Vikings). Both teams are now healthier in the secondary after dealing with midseason injuries, particularly New Orleans, who is as healthy as it has been all season.

That's the big thing - the New Orleans defense was in a close game for one of the few times this season when hosting Dallas. They couldn't get the stop they needed to in that spot, but they were also banged up. It's very easy to see the Saints D as above-average when they've played with the lead the entire year. That makes going UNDER in this spot a nervous proposition. The Minnesota offense, unlike Arizona last week, has the ability to keep the New Orleans offense off the field. If Favre has time and is allowed to improvise, he can put together those six or seven-minute, 70-yard drives because the Vikings can run the ball and as long as Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor are alternating carries, New Orleans has to respect the run. Time of possession will go a long way in determining a winner.

In the secondary, Porter and Greer are healthy; make no mistake, they ARE important, but the Saints played with a lead 90 percent of the time this year. That's always an advantage to a secondary when they're expecting the pass. The teams met last season: Tarvaris Jackson was the Vikings' QB, Sidney Rice had zero confidence and Reggie Bush returned two punts for touchdowns - and the Vikings still won.

As for experience, NO does have more as a team - no question. But, getting to and winning the NFC Championship game are two different things. Still, the Vikes have been terrible on the road of late - they were 1-4 against teams with 7-plus wins this season. Also, the Saints have an extra day to prepare for the Vikes. That extra rest day can be huge in January, when teams are hurting. The 24 extra hours for healing and game-planning could be a big factor, too.

As The Bookie said earlier, this game looks to be a coin-toss. The teams are evenly-matched, making the 3.5 basically the value of the home field advantage for New Orleans. No recommendation on the side, but gun-to-the-head, take the points with Minnesota in a game that could easily fall '3'. Don't bet the farm, but UNDER looks to be the way to go. The Bookie's forecast is the absolute most points we see either team scoring in the game. Sharp money is on the UNDER and we agree with it.

Prediction: New Orleans 27, Minnesota 24
The Bookie's Bet: UNDER 53

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