AFC Conference Championship

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AFC Conference Championship

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts

First of all, congratulations to the Jets. They have taken the most of an opportunity given to them by the Colts four weeks ago, when Indianapolis decided to lay down and let the Jets beat them. Another gift win against the Bengals to conclude the season allowed the Jets to sneak into the playoffs. They then blasted the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Chargers in San Diego, overcoming 7-0 deficits in each game.

Americas Bookie currently have the Colts favored by -7.5 and the total at 39.5

That won't happen here, and for quite a few reasons. First, the Jets fell behind both teams, but it could have been worse. San Diego's inability to convert points with all of those yards (218 at halftime, only 7 points) won't happen with Indianapolis this week. The Bengals also missed a couple of short field goals the week before that could have widened the early lead. The Jets were able to stick with the run, only seven down, and eventually wear down their foes. And while the Colts defense ranked only 24th against the run, the stat has to come with an asterick. That's because both the Jets and Buffalo gashed them for more than 200 yards in the last two games of the season, both done when the substitutes were involved.

The Jets do have a good run-blocking unit, a huge O-line and have more than one capable running back. Still, the Jets were out-first downed and outgained against San Diego; a couple of gift turnovers and TEN penalties against the Chargers helped the cause. The Jets ran the ball 607 times in the regular season compared to just 393 passes attempted. But Indy silenced an equally one-dimensional attack last week, holding the run-happy Ravens to just three points.

On the other side, the Jets will blitz religiously, and do it better than Baltimore did last week. Still, there is no QB better at recognizing the blitz than Manning, and he should be able to take advantage of the Jets when they overcommit to it. Sure, Darrelle Revis is a lock-down corner, among the best in football. Still, he can't guard ALL of the various Indianapolis weapons. He'll likely be lined up against ace Reggie Wayne. That leaves Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie and Dallas Clark as the downfield threats, with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown coming out of the backfield and occasionally lining up in the slot when the Colts go empty-backfield. The glaring mismatch appears to be Lito Sheppard on Collie. Collie burned him bad in the first half last time, and while Lito has played well of late, it will be tough for him to stay with Collie and his speed in the slot.

Let's go back and look at the first game. When the starters were still out there, the Jets did almost nothing. The Colts scored 15 points, just missing on long passes to Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Manning was a steady 14-of-21 for 192 yards without a touchdown or interception. The Jets kicked a field goal, and got their other seven points on a Brad Smith kickoff return to start the second half. The motivational angle works in favor of Indy as well; this is a team that thrashed Manning 41-0 in the playoffs six years ago - it was his worst loss, ever. This team also ended Indy's perfect season (according to the players, behind closed doors, however, they'll say that the front office and coaches did that by sitting them out in the last 25 minutes). If Indy gets out by double-digits early, as has been an "M-O" of theirs in the past - then this could wind up the same 41-0 that they lost by six years ago.

Colts vs. Rex Ryan-coached defense:

2005 - 24 points - win
2006 - 15 points - playoff win
2007 - 31 points - win
2008 - 44 points - win
2009 - 15 points in about 36 minutes before quitting.

More likely, it will be a little lower-scoring and not quite as much of a bludgeoning. But the Jets' run ends here.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27, Jets 10
The Bookie's Bet: Indianapolis -7.5

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