NFL Football Picks - Week 14

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NFL Football Picks - Week 14

The Bookie grinded out a 2-2 Sunday in the NFL last week. Still, The Bookie has wrecked HIS bookies to the tune of a 27-11 mark over the last nine weeks in the NFL alone (every play is right here for you to see). In Week 14, it looks like five more good plays are staring us in the face!

Denver at Indianapolis (-6.5)
The Colts continue to hum along, racking up a dozen wins in a row to start the season and tying New England's regular-season all-time record with 21. No. 22 is in sight today, and some pseudo-wiseguys have driven the line down inside of a touchdown. The bottom line is that Indianapolis has continued to keep teams out of the end zone and that's no accident, despite giving up gobs of yards at times. Denver is a ball-control type team and expect them to get rookie RB Knowshawn Moreno involved, while the Colts stack the box to try to stop that. Indy has big-play capability, while Denver really does not. QB Kyle Orton does a good job of directing the game with his team in the lead or close to it, but if Peyton Manning gets the Colts up by a couple of touchdowns, forget about it. Denver is in great place for a wild-card spot and expect first-year coach Josh McDaniels to get off the gas early and try to learn some things about the Colts for a future meeting if things don't go well today. Lay it with Indy.

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Minnesota
The Bengals have been dogs six times this season and won each game straight-up. They have become heavily reliant on the run and playing for field position - in the last three games, they've ran the ball 61 percent of the time, a very high number. The Cincy defense is giving up just 11.5 points per game during the past six games. Cedric Benson has five 100-yard rushing games this season. Yes, Minnesota has one of the best run defenses in the NFL. But the Vikings are 0-7 ATS at home from December on under Brad Childress.... let's try the Cats again today plus the points.

New York Jets (-3.5) at Tampa Bay
Tampa is a dangerous team to try and bet against, as the Bucs continue to try hard for their first-year coach. Rookie QB Josh Freeman continues to get repetitions and improve. In the meantime, the Jets will go with backup QB Kellen Clemens as rookie Mark Sanchez is out with an injury. This should help the Jets. They should try to pound the ball on the ground, with the running backs getting about 40 carries against a battered and soft Tampa defense. Jones has ran for 114 ypg in the last seven weeks and should have another big day today. The Jets are still alive in the AFC East, so don't expect coach Rex Ryan to get cute and try to put the game in the hands of his QB. He won't need to, as the Jets are physically superior and should cover this line by at least a touchdown if properly focused.

San Diego (+3.5) at Dallas
San Diego has been playing as well as anyone in the league the last couple of months, winning seven straight and covering all until last week (up 30-14 at the 2:00 warning, but failing to get the cash). After their loss to the Giants (for the second time this year), the Cowboys need this win. But we've known this same thing about Dallas in December for years now, as talented Dallas teams with great need have spit the bit down the stretch with great regularity this decade. The Cowboys are 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread in the last four games of the regular season in their two seasons under Wade Phillips. The reverse is true for the Chargers under Norv Turner, who are 8-0 straight up and 7-1 against the spread. There’s another area that the Chargers can get an edge - the Cowboys allowed five plays of 20 yards or more on Sunday, with a 79-yard punt return thrown in to boot. The Chargers are one of the top big-play offenses in the NFL. And the way these teams close their seasons isn’t accidental - it’s actually a big edge for the Bolts. The Chargers have scored 30-plus in four games in a row and figure to keep it going today, as Phillip Rivers continues to lead the charge to a division title and a bye.

Washington at Oakland (+1)
Kudos to the Redskins for great efforts in covering losses in each of the last three weeks to conference foes. They should have won no less than two of them, and likely all three, for embattled coach Jim Zorn. How many times can Zorn get his team to come back to the emotional well? This is a horrible spot for the Redskins, a team that is also lacking its top two running backs, yet laying a point on the road on the West Coast to a team with one more win than they do. Oakland is now 2-1 with Bruce Gradkowski under center. The former Toledo QB has thrown for 691 yards in his three starts - more than Russell threw in all six of his starts - and has given the Raiders some much-needed stability on offense. Meanwhile, the Raider defense has limited foes to 24 or less in five straight games. Wins against Cincinnati and Pittburgh are on the resume; two teams better than anyone the Skins have beaten all season. Why are the Raiders a home dog? Don't ask why, just take the point and be done with it!

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