MMA Betting: UFC on Fox 4 Picks

This Saturday the UFC on Fox 4 event will be hosted at the Staples Center in Los Angeles. The UFC on Fox events are always very popular because of the fact that bettors get to watch the action for free. There are only four fights on the main card and we like a lot of favourites, which means that in order to get a decent payout our best bet is to parlay the favourites.

UFC on Fox 4 Odds & Predictions

• Mauricio Rua -343 vs. Brendon Vera +300

In the main event between Shogun and Vera you have to side with the favourite. Shogun has the edge standing up and an even bigger edge on the ground against Vera. Shogun may have lost his last fight against Dan Henderson, but Rua was able to last the full five rounds and I think he still has enough in the tank to come out on top against Vera. Shogun lands more strikes and he is way more active on the ground plus with takedowns.

• Lyoto Machida -314 vs. Ryan Bader +276

Ryan Bader just beat Rampage Jackson in his last fight, but I think that’ll just make Lyoto train harder. Machida is a way better fighter and he has been fighting the top fighters in the weight class for years now. Machida should be able to stop most of the takedown attempts by Bader in this fight and if he can do that he’s a way better technical striker than Bader. Machida may not be able to KO Bader, as noone has been able to in the past, but Machida should win by decision.

• Joe Lauzon -114 vs. Jamie Varner +103

Joe Lauzon is going to be getting most of the attention this weekend by the betting public, but the sharps are on Varner to win against Lauzon. Joe opened as a -150 favourite and has been bet down to -114 already. Varner will win this fight as long as he is careful that he doesn’t get submitted by Lauzon. The only way I see Varner losing is by submission. Varner has been on a roll and he matches up very well with Lauzon. Lauzon also struggled with defending himself and is always leaving himself open.

• Mike Swick -201 vs. Demarques Johnson +180

I’m also on Johnson as an underdog and I’ll explain why to everyone quickly. This fight is going to be a war on the feet, as none of these two fighters like to take the fight to the mat. Swick shouldn’t be a -201 favourite against many fighters and Johnson has enough talent to pull off a victory. He can submit and knockout fighters and at +180 he’s definitely worth a shot. His stand-up is on par with Swick, but the only thing that worries me is Johnson isn’t great at defending strikes in the stand-up game.

We recommend betting on the two big favourites together on a parlay and then betting on the two underdogs straight-up, as you only need one of the underdogs to come through to make a small profit. If both underdogs win you’ll be guaranteed profit regardless of how the parlay ends up, but I think the parlay should win, as Machida and Rua both need to win here.