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Can Dodgers Roll vs. Mets and Matz?

Updated: .August 6, 2017

By Charles Jay

There is a runaway train out there, and it is called the Los Angeles Dodgers. Rarely has a team gotten this hot, and it would be an extreme disappointment if they don’t end the campaign with a World Series title. On Sunday night they will play in the ESPN game against the New York Mets, with the action commencing at 8:05 PM ET at Citi Field in Flushing. Of course, if you are an America’s Bookie customer you can place wagers during the game itself as you take advantage of two different “Live Betting” options at your disposal.

The Dodgers were in a tight race for a while in the National League West, along with two other teams who could indeed be headed to the playoffs. They were in second place, in fact, as recently as June 20. Then they took the lead in the division the next day and have never relinquished it.

Now they are 78-32, which as them 14.5 games ahead of Colorado and 15 on top of Arizona as the race has become a non-race. They are eight games better than the team with the next best record in the majors – the Houston Astros. And they are projected to win 115 games.

Taking the mound for the Dodgers on Sunday night will be Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 3.83 ERA), and he will be opposed by Steven Matz (2-4, 5.50 ERA).

In the Sunday Night baseball betting odds posted on this game, the Dodgers are considerable favorites:

Los Angeles Dodgers (Ryu) -170
New York Mets (Matz) +150

Under 9 Runs -120
Over 9 Runs +100

Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-105)
Mets +1.5 Runs (-115)

Ryu is obviously a rarity in that he has a losing record for a team that is playing .709 baseball. His metrics are respectable, except for the fact that he has given up home runs at a little too much of a rate (15 in 84-2/3 innings). Thus his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) figure is much higher than it was in his first two seasons in the league. His average Game Score is 50, which is average.

Matz has not reached 50 in his Game Score in any of his last five starts, and that is a problem for the Mets, who were encouraged by his first couple of starts after he came off the disabled list, and then by back-to-back seven-inning scoreless stints against the Marlins and Nationals on the road. Something is wrong here, as he has given up 40 base hits in his last 18-1/3 innings.

There has been a virtual dominance by the Dodgers over this opponent in the 2017 season. They have won all six meetings, outscoring the Mets by a 49-15 margin. So there is no surprise that they are a sizable favorite here, even with a back-of-the-rotation pitcher on the mound.

When a team has won 43 of its last 50 games, you shouldn’t necessarily be looking for a spot in which they are going to trip up, but rather, a way where you can take advantage of their hot streak in a way where you don’t have to lay a premium price. So we see something reasonable here in laying a run and a half with the boys in blue, as the Charles Jay / America’s Bookie Challenge continues on Sunday night.

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